Prelude to the presidential elections. Working hypotheses

             Slowly but firmly, we enter the presidential election fever. Some parties already chosen the candidate, others have to do it in the near future. We also have an independent one: the parliamentarian Valeriu Ghilețchii made public his intention to run on its own for the president of the country.

            Following surveys, trends and the balance of forces in the political arena, we see how the main favorites for the presidential elections in October are created. After all the probabilities, they will be three: the leader of the socialists, candidate of the “right-wing” (this positioning right-center-left is relative when we talk about the political spectrum in our country) and the PD representative.

            The main subjects of the campaign, probably, are going to be two. The first one, fight against corruption. Debates will be held on the question: “Where is the billion?”. In the remaining time until the elections, unlikely to have a clear answer, so it is possible that we will witness how the thief will scream louder than the others: “Catch the thief!”. The second subject of the campaign will be further fueled by the traditional geopolitical cleavage. Now this will be marked by the union subject, which finds more and more supporters in the society.

            Socialist candidate, Igor Dodon, is credited now with the best chance of winning. Should be noted that the leader of PSRM doesn’t want so much to be a president, he wants more than that, which he declared publicly. Socialists tried their best to postpone the election of the president. Let us recall that the deputies of the PSRM faction voted against establishing the date of elections, and then there were those who disputed it at the Venice Commission. In the case the president would be elected, over Igor Dodon – and the entire party – will overshadow the danger to be identified with the government, and this might be unfavorable for the next parliamentary elections.  Therefore he will do his best to be noticed, with or without a work, with or without reason, and declaring their separate position thus causing conflicts with the parliamentary majority or with those from the Government. Socialist leader did not even hesitate to declare openly that he is coming more to fight than to work with other state institutions. Meanwhile, the early elections would also not benefit socialists. Renato Usatîi can recover some of the voters who gave their vote to PSRM at the last elections, when Our Party was removed from the race in the last minutes. Therefore, PSRM goes to the protests announced by Usatîi, more out of inertia and visibility, and Igor Dodon wants presidency so anyone else could not get it. In the event that Igor Dodon is elected president, the implementation of the Association Agreement with the EU will go on more difficult and the process of modernization of Moldovan society will only suffer.

            Through a joint communique, the Party of Action and Solidarity, Truth and Justice Party and the Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova informs us that in the presidential election they form a unity and that they intend to come up with a common candidate. Following, probably, the strict mathematical calculation, according to which the joint candidate has only to sum up the three parties’ votes, if they went separately, the three want to dance a hora: “There is strength in numbers!”. The logic of political competition, especially the struggle for power doesn’t always coincide with formal logic. We will live and we will see. Until then, though, they will have to face a very difficult test: to identify the candidate. It's hard to imagine that those who are behind Andrei Năstase will agree to support anyone besides their own candidate. Therefore, it is difficult to believe that, if not all, but the most PAS supporters (many of which are intellectuals, after the revelations in the press) but also the inappropriate behavior of the PDA leader will agree to give him the vote. These, in the absence of any viable alternatives probably will not go to vote and would prefer to stay at home. I will not say anything about PLDM. The people there get upset, when you give the opinion about them and their often foolish actions. They do not like when you come with suggestions or if, God forbid, dare to criticize. After that, they call you and tell who pays you. Therefore, only good about PLDM or nothing at all.

            A word to say on the right (this time the real one), would have Iurie Leancă, PPEM candidate. From the position of a constructive opposition, which was placed in the popular Europeans’ leader, with the support of European partners, Iurie Leancă’s candidacy might be one of the best for the Presidency. Nevertheless, now, the former prime minister has a problem: to denigrate his image were working and are still working hard. Excelled here equally the former party colleagues, Platform supporters and opponents on the left. As far as the PPEM leader will be able to build a persuasive campaign, based on a critical speech, but constructive one at the same time, has a chance to recover the previous rating.

            Of those who count on the presidential election - PD, PCRM, PL and PN – have not announced their candidate yet. A mystery remains whom will the democrats propose. The public space is circulated by several names and scenarios. One thing is clear: for Democrats’ candidate accession in the second round will be a very difficult task. At first glance, it does not seem so complicated for a centrist party that could take votes from both right and left. However, assuming the government, additionally to the advantage of available administrative resources, also brings burden of responsibility for all the failures from the last years. Even if the economic and financial slippage was stopped, it is still early to speak about a tangible improvement to benefit the citizens, so as to influence their decision to vote. Henceforward the very heavy mission for the democratic candidate is to get in the second round and then to win the election.

            For the Liberal Party - also part of the ruling coalition - is precisely the right moment to try to claim back the unionist electorate, which, as mentioned, is growing. A lot depends on the candidate who would run in elections. If the PL leader insists on himself, the allegations about political death of both the Liberal leader and the party will not seem an exaggeration anymore.

            PCRM and its leader, Vladimir Voronin, the favorite of the surveys and analyzes conducted a few years ago, obviously lost the positions he once had. On the other hand, at the last parliamentary election from November 30, 2014, PCRM has achieved a relatively good score – over 17 percent of the suffrages, the chances of the communist candidate to reach the second round are rather hypothetical.

            We have to see how will act those from Our Party. Renato Usatîi cannot, because he is younger, and a someone with similar opportunities, the party does not have. Only if someone outside the party is put forward. He will have no chance, however he can take some of the votes from Igor Dodon, in the geopolitical dimension and some of Andrei Nastase’s votes, in the populist one. Consequently, probably, PN will not submit anyone, leaving some voters to go to the platform leader, thus giving him an advantage in the competition with Maia Sandu for a single candidate from those three parties.

            The roads and intentions of the presidential candidates are tangled and unknown! The privileges offered by the Constitution to the president of the Republic of Moldova and the role played by him in the political system are not as important as the battle and the sufferings that are provoked by the electoral fight. It is not worth the effort. I remain convinced that the election of the President by the whole nation is a luxury that we cannot afford. An elected president that would be in opposition with the majority of the government will be a permanent destabilizing factor. The Constitutional Court repaired a procedural mistake committed in the past, but Parliament, in turn, could go back on its decisions and develop such a mechanism for electing the President, simple and effective, which would avoid all sorts of slippages and political crises. This requires courage and political wisdom, while we continue to wade in cheap populism and ignorance.

            Now, we can only make ourselves comfortable and watch all this mess. Every day it becomes more exciting. An absurd mixture of comic and tragic, grotesque and farce. That is just the prelude...

            13.08.2016